Daily Forex Technical Forecast (Dec-05-2011)
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish correction on Friday, fell back below 1.3420 support area after the US NFP data. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that as long as moving inside the bullish channel (see my hourly chart below) price is still in a bullish correction phase and we need a clear break below the bullish channel and 1.3300 – 1.3270 support area to end the bullish correction which started since bounced from 1.3211, testing 1.3145 even lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3420/50. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term, testing the double top formation around 1.3520/30 area.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, slipped above 104.95, topped at 105.50 but whipsawed to the downside and close at 104.41 after the US NFP data. The bias is bearish in nearest term and a false breakout scenario might be produced testing 103.40/50 area even lower. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 104.95 would turn my intraday bias to a bullish view testing the trend line resistance (white) and 106.00/50 area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 122.55 but closed lower at 121.57. Looks like we have a triple top formation around 122.62 strong resistance. This fact keeps my bearish intraday outlook intact testing 120.50 – 119.00 area. My double bottom bullish reversal scenario remains valid, but as long as stays below 122.62 I still prefer a bearish intraday scenario at this phase.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.0322 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.0214 after the US NFP data. On my h4 chart below we can see price is moving sideways after the bullish momentum triggered by the double bottom formation suggests a consolidation phase but still with more upside bias. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen around 1.0149. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.0080. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.0329 would continue the double bottom bullish scenario testing 1.0440.
GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD failed to continue the bullish correction phase on Friday after the US NFP data and now slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my hourly chart below which is a threat to the bullish correction phase. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.5600 testing 1.5520 – 1.5422 support area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5635 area. A clear break back above that area could lead price to a neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bullish correction phase intact at least testing 1.5700 area.
USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bullish intraday bias last week. Although we have not seen significant bullish momentum so far, by staying above 77.80 the intraday technical bias should remain more to the upside, testing 79.52 as the nearest bullish target. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 80.00 and 81.00 resistance area as a part of a potential bullish reversal scenario after hit the record low at 75.65.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish correction phase in Friday, topped at 0.9240 and closed at 0.9210. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9320 key resistance area. A clear break and daily close above that area could end the bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario testing 0.9400 – 0.9500. Immediate support is seen around 0.9200 – 0.9170 area. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9100 – 0.9070 support area
